Inside the News

New York - an onlooker in the presidential race

Western New York may very well have had its only up close and personal brush with the 2008 presidential campaign Monday -- all in the course of a quick three hours.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain was whisked into Buffalo shortly after 5 p.m. and left just after 8 p.m. with more than $1 million in new campaign contributions -- a record for a local political fundraiser.

It all shows that living in New York means you never really feel part of a presidential campaign.

New York is overwhelmingly Democratic -- a "blue state" that is steadily becoming "bluer." That means that New Yorkers are expected to pull the Democratic lever again this year en masse, leaving Democrat Barack Obama to count the state in his column and McCain to concentrate on genuine battleground states where spending his money might do more good.

It also means that New Yorkers will not see much of the presidential candidates this year and won't be subjected to the barrage of television commercials bombarding voters in key states like Florida and Ohio.

In other years, New Yorkers might get a taste of presidential politics during the Democratic primary season. But with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton locking up her home state early in the 2008 primary season, New York voters didn't even get a chance at that part of the campaign this time around.

Does it make a difference to you that New York is usually an onlooker from the sidelines?

Or would you rather not be subjected to the airwaves saturation and other hoopla associated
with our quadrennial exercise in democracy?

--Robert J. McCarthy

Paladino -- love him or loathe him

  Few public figures in Western New York inspire such heated opinion, pro and con, as developer Carl Paladino.

    Some people, especially those he has  tangled with, consider him an insensitive bully whose only real agenda is Carl Paladino.

   Others consider him one of the region's most valuable movers and shakers, a man who puts his money where his mouth is, a man of action who accomplishes more than our elected officials.

   It's curious that Paladino's most recent targets are the Buffalo School Board and Superintendent James A. Williams. Other than some Sabres and Bills officials, Paladino may rank second only to Williams as the most controversial public figure in Western New York.

   So what do you think?

  -- Gene Warner

Collins learning how to play politics

   Love him or hate him, just about everybody acknowledges we've never had a county executive like Chris Collins.

   The rookie politician, a Republican, was swept into the 16th floor of the Rath County Office Building last November in a landslide. And he did it by challenging the area's political status quo, casting himself as a "chief executive not a chief politician," and promising to run Erie County like a business.

   But today's story in The Buffalo News outlines the evolution of the millionaire businessman into at least a semi-politician. Critics say he has ignored his campaign promise by diving into the political pool, flexing his muscles in races for the House of Representatives and the Assembly.

   Others say he is an elected official, for heaven's sake, and has to play the politics game … at least to some extent.

   In any event, Collins the politician is a new and interesting side of our county executive, and is a story with a long way to go before it plays out.

   What do you think of how Collins is conducting himself as county executive?

   -- Robert J. McCarthy

Is sexism dogging Hillary's presidential hopes?

  WASHINGTON -- On a day trip to Buffalo last week, a half-dozen women came up to me and said, in essence, that they're mad as hell.

   A woman had a chance to be president, and a younger, less experienced man appears to have taken that chance away from her, and these women were not happy about it.

   And they were not alone. I had been hearing similar sentiments on the campaign trail for weeks. Now they seemed to be reaching a peak, though, so I decided to write about them.

   Again and again, the women I interviewed raised the possibility that sexism stood between Hillary Clinton and the presidency. After all, there are no Barack Obama nutcrackers out there, and nobody has devoted a long story to his slim, athletic visage the way the Washington Post devoted a story to Clinton's cleavage.

   If this is sexism, it has gone largely unnoticed in a campaign where race and racism have never been far from front-and-center.

   But should it go unnoticed? Or is Hillary Clinton now the Democratic runner-up because too many Americans just aren't ready for a female president?

-- Jerry Zremski

Frank Clark exits in uncharacteristic fashion

   It wasn't your typical Frank Clark press conference.

   It lasted a mere five minutes. There was no question-and-answer period. His cheeks never got red. And at the end, his voice was anything but booming.

   The one constant in the local media world -- Erie County District Attorney Frank Clark's colorful, flamboyant, fire-and-brimstone sessions with the media -- seemed to vanish on Monday when Clark announced that he's stepping down after this year.

   There were no issues discussed here, just a man clearly sad about having to move on.

   He paid homage to his wife, Cathy --  "the wonderful person standing next to me" -- and his love for the district attorney's office -- "this has been my home for 27 years, and I love it."

   "There always comes a time when you say goodbye, and I think this is the time I have to say goodbye," he said.

   He talked about his medical condition, lupus, and how job-related stress triggers a flare-up of his disease, posing a very serious threat to his health. He talked about how tough it would be for him to be on the sidelines, rather than in the line of fire. And he talked about his interest in a possible teaching post.

   "It's a very, very sad day for me, very sad . . .," he said. "But I'm Irish, I'm a Marine, and I will continue to roll on."

   There were many unanswered questions, of course, about his legacy, his successor, his future political involvement, etc. But this wasn't a day for questions, even if they had been allowed.

   It was a day to say goodbye to a political figure who has occupied the spotlight for 12
years. Now someone else will have to bask in that spotlight.

   And the media, both professionally and personally, will miss their go-to guy.

   -- Gene Warner

Meet the new bosses, same as the old bosses

   WASHINGTON … Once upon a time 40 years ago, presidential primaries were nothing more than beauty contests, and every delegate was a "superdelegate" -- a party insider who got to go to the convention and choose the presidential nominee.

   And now, the long and contentious battle between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama has turned the last primaries into beauty contests, of a sort, which will serve as guideposts for the 306 remaining superdelegates who will decide the Democratic presidential nomination.

   In other words: meet the new bosses -- same as the old bosses (although, granted, there are fewer of them).

   Talks with superdelegates and other sources Wednesday showed that those undecided superdelegates are not likely to be swayed by Clinton's 10-point win in the Pennsylvania primary.

   Instead, the Pennsylvania results are more likely to simply freeze this race in place for at least another two weeks, as the superdelegates watch what happens in the May 6 primaries in Indiana and North Carolina.

   In other words, after five months of primaries and caucuses and tens of millions of dollars in campaign spending and maybe 30 million votes cast, the Clinton-Obama contest will be decided by 306 people.

   That's Democratic, under the party's rules.

   But how democratic is it?

  -- Jerry Zremski

The economy takes center stage in Pennsylvania

   PITTSBURGH - It's the economy, stupid.

   And that means you, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

   That was the message plenty of factory workers - and Pennsylvania voters - brought to the downtown convention center here Monday, where Clinton and Obama continued their battle over the Illinois senator's comments that small-town voters are "bitter" and "cling" to religion or guns out of economic frustration.

   Out of 25 voters I interviewed at the event, only two thought Obama's comments were a major issue. Yet every single voter expressed grave doubts about the American economy as it enters a recession after years of factory closings.

   A plurality of the voters I talked to supported Clinton, saying she has the more detailed plan for boosting the economy and the proven toughness to get it enacted.

   As for Obama, many of those voters said they liked him - and would like him better once he actually had a track record of accomplishment on the federal level.

   So that's what the debate was about in Pittsburgh on Monday. It was enough to make me wonder: Why did all the TV shout show pundits spend the weekend shouting about Obama's comments - and did of any of them talk to any Pennsylvania voters before they started shouting?

  --- Jerry Zremski

Initiative on Race -- a decade later

    Upon hearing Barack Obama's much-discussed speech on race last month, something about it seemed eerily familiar.

   He seemed to be suggesting that America would benefit from an honest dialogue on race -- and  I remembered that President Bill Clinton had not only suggested the same thing 11 years ago, but followed through with a presidential initiative on the issue.

   Instantly I wondered: what do the people who worked on the President's Initiative on Race think of their work 10 years later? What do they think of Obama's speech? And what do they think of the role race has played in the historic Democratic presidential campaign between Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton?

   The answers, spelled out in a dozen interviews over several weeks and in a story in  Sunday's News, came as a surprise to me. Many of the top-level people in the Clinton initiative are still angry, months later, over Bill Clinton's supposedly racially tinged comments before the South Carolina primary.

   In particular, here's what he said about the Obama-Clinton race:

   "They are getting votes, to be sure, because of their race or gender, and that's why people tell me that Hillary doesn't have a chance to win here."

   And on the day of the primary, the former president said: "Jesse Jackson won South Carolina in '84 and '88. Jackson ran a good campaign. And Obama ran a good campaign here."

   So what do you think? Do the people who helped Clinton on his race initiative have the right to be so disappointed?

-- Jerry Zremski

WNY's love affair with athletes turned politicians

   Western New York has always loved its sports stars.

     They even often elect them to office.

     So it's no surprise that heavyweight boxer Baby Joe Mesi enters the race for the seat of retiring Sen. Mary Lou Rath, R-Williamsville, as an instant contender. The Democrat is well known, he has a fundraising base among a host of loyal fans, and he's working to convince voters that he knows he can take on Albany as well as he did 36 unfortunate boxing opponents during his career.

     Mesi has a big job ahead. Already he is facing skeptics about a boxer who once sustained a brain injury. And several other Democrats as well as probable Republican opponent Michael H. Ranzenhofer, a lawyer and county legislator, all think their credentials are more appropriate for the marble-columned halls of the Capitol.

     But Mesi is almost universally recognized in Western New York. He filled HSBC Arena during his fighting days — which he said are on "hold" — and also has become well known on the banquet and charity circuit.

     It's not crazy to think he could pull it off, especially after so many sports stars before him have succeeded.

     That's why Mesi's next venture will not only grab lots of attention in the months ahead from television, radio and The Buffalo News, but the likes of ESPN and Ring magazine as well.
    
     -- Robert J. McCarthy

Like "Rocky," Hillary refuses to quit

     WILKES-BARRE, Pa. -- Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has been accused of many things, but a resemblance to a fictional heavyweight boxer has never been one of them -- until Tuesday, when she started comparing herself to that Pennsylvania celluloid hero Rocky Balboa.

     She took the stage at a town hall meeting here to the theme from "Rocky," and in Philadelphia, made the connection even more explicit, saying: "Let me tell you something, when it comes to finishing a fight, Rocky and I have a lot in common. I never quit. I never give up."

     Her comments came days after Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont, a supporter of Sen. Barack Obama's bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, suggested she should leave the race.

     "Sen. Clinton has every right, but not a very good reason, to remain a candidate for as long as she wants to," he said. "As far as the delegate count and the interests of a Democratic victory in November go, there is not a very good reason for drawing this out."

     Indeed, Clinton faces long odds.

     According to the Slate delegate calculator, the New York senator would need to score 64 percent of the vote in the remaining contests to pull ahead of Obama in the delegate count. To put it mildly, that might be a stretch for a candidate who has exceeded 64 percent in only one contest -- the Arkansas primary -- so far.

     Then again, it's a free country, so Clinton can continue to run until the nomination is decided, or until she runs out of money, if she so chooses.

     But should she?

    -- Jerry Zremski

Obama opens gate to dialogue on race relations

  Sen. Barack Obama's speech on race relations has a lot of people talking about the subject --  and many are grateful for the opportunity.

   The Buffalo News interviewed more than 30 people for this story, from Amherst, Cheektowaga, Hamburg and Orchard Park to Buffalo. They are black and white, men and women. They range in age from 18 to 80. They were people who live in the city and rarely leave it. Some work in the city and live in the suburbs and others  live in the suburbs and know little of the city.

   "That speech was more significant in this day and age than Martin Luther King's  'I have a Dream' speech," said Melvin Watkins, one of more than 30 people  interviewed for this report.

   "King spoke in symbolism," he said. "[Obama] brought it right out where people can understand."

   As Obama explained his relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, he used it as an opportunity to take on the complexities of race relations in the 21st century, tackling issues of black anger and white resentment.

   Have you had a conversation about race in the wake of Obama's speech? Did you take it as an opportunity to rethink your own views about race?

   -- Maki Becker

Maziarz is torn between two capitols

   All Republican eyes are on State Sen. George D. Maziarz of Newfane.

   The right to run for the seat of retiring Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds is his for the asking, say all GOP sources. Now he has to decide if he'll ask.

   It's a tough call for the veteran Niagara County politico. Retaining the Senate majority ranks as the highest of high priorities for New York Republicans, and that is proving a difficult task as changing demographics throughout the state continue to favor Democrats.

   If Maziarz runs for the House of Representatives, it means the GOP will have to pump more money into Western New York for a seat that would be considered safe. That will detract from money that must be dedicated to the seat of retiring Sen. Mary Lou Rath, R-Williamsville, as well as several tough races anticipated on Long Island.

   But most see Maziarz as their best bet. They believe Niagara County Republican Chairman Henry F. Wojtaszek will prove the ideal Senate candidate in his stead, and that Western New York will do its part to preserve the Republican majority in the Senate.

   And, the 26th Congressional District still boasts about 37,000 more Republicans than Democrats, making it a good place for Maziarz or any other member of the GOP to start.

   Still, it's an Easter weekend of soul searching for George Maziarz.

   --- Robert J. McCarthy

Race takes center stage in presidential campaign

   Race, the "four-letter word" that previously had only peripheral impact on Sen. Barack Obama's quest to become the nation's first black president, is suddenly at the epicenter of the 2008 campaign.

   After the senator on Tuesday felt compelled to discuss the racially centered and controversial remarks of his longtime pastor, the role of the black church in politics also re-enters the spotlight.

   But politics from the pulpit has long been an accepted practice of the black church. Political figures from Mario M. Cuomo to Hillary Rodham Clinton to H. Carl McCall have long courted black voters in Buffalo's African-American congregations. Even George W. Bush, then governor of Texas, campaigned in Mount Olive Baptist Church in 1999, urging his audience to "rally the armies of compassion."

   Obama is now asking voters to understand the role of politics in the black church, and he enters damage-control mode in an attempt to quell the firestorm of controversy following Wright's remarks.

   -- Robert J. McCarthy

David Paterson: likable ... and liberal

   New Yorkers voted for him in 2006, but they knew little if anything -- and likely cared little considering the job title he was seeking -- about who David Paterson really is, what he stands for and where he might want to take the state.

   Now, it matters.

   On Monday, Paterson, the lieutenant governor since January 2007, will become the state's 55th governor, taking over the job being vacated by Eliot L. Spitzer, who is resigning amid the sex scandal that has shook Albany this week.

   The stories about Paterson all have a common theme: likable, capable, funny and able to reach across party lines. But what of his politics?

   Paterson, a Harlem Democrat, is an unabashed liberal -- with a voting record and bill-introduction background that will make him, upon entering the governor's office anyway, one of the most left-leaning chief executives of the state in recent memory.

   Just how progressive he is when it comes to politics will be decided in short order: he has three weeks to negotiate a new 2008 state budget with legislative leaders. In the face of a struggling economy and declining revenue forecasts, Albany will wait to see if Paterson will be willing to take on some powerful special interests that will be prodding him to spend more than Spitzer wanted on education, health care and other big portions of the budget.

   It will be a debate that could chart the course for the next 33 months of the upcoming Paterson administration.

-- Tom Precious

State loses Spitzer -- and his reform agenda

      With Eliot Spitzer on the way out, the status quo in Albany is more firmly in place than ever.

   The warm breeze coming from the east is not the usual hot air from state politicians, but a collective sigh of relief.

   Our 212 state legislators are pleased less out of personal dislike of the take-no-prisoners Spitzer, but because hopes for changing business-as-usual in Albany will likely leave with the disgraced governor.

   The larger issue of "Client 9's" dalliance with a high-priced prostitute is not the personal toll on Spitzer and his family. It is the public price we will pay … in ever-higher taxes, in business-killing rules and regulations, in the cost of a bloated government … for the exit of the man who vowed to change it.

   The degree to which Spitzer would have succeeded is debatable. His 14-plus months in office were marked with small successes and big blunders, from Troopergate to a tin-eared push for driver's licenses for illegal immigrants.

   But the job has a steep learning curve, particularly for an outsider like the ex-attorney general. The hope was that Spitzer would learn that conciliation works better than confrontation in Albany's entrenched anti-change culture. It is too bad that we will not get
the chance to find out.

  -- Donn Esmonde

Paterson could be the right man for wronged times

    In what seemed like an instant, the career, reputation and accomplishments of Eliot L. Spitzer disappeared when he announced his resignation as governor shortly before noon Wednesday --
brought down by his own undoing in a prostitution scandal.

But a strange thing was happening in the halls of the Capitol amid all the political wreckage: a minor dose of optimism. Albany has been a fractured town on and off over the past year. It began with Spitzer taking on fellow Democrats following a fight over a selection to the state comptroller's job, then elevated during budget fights, and peaked when it was revealed his aides were using state resources, including the State Police, in a campaign to try to discredit the Legislature's top Republican.

This year promised to be increasingly ugly, as Spitzer and Democrats were poised to step up their efforts to try to take control of the Senate from the Republicans.

But Spitzer's replacement -- David Paterson -- is an old-school Albany politician -- able to joust  with political enemies during the day but mend fences  when the sun sets. There will be battles and jockeying, no doubt, especially as the new governor's political portrait makes him a classic Manhattan liberal Democrat. But Paterson seeks to avoid confrontations, and seek out conciliation and compromise.

In his first public appearance since the Spitzer scandal unfolded, Paterson later today is not likely to come out fighting as the outgoing governor did just 15 months ago, when he took office vowing to change Albany's status quo. Paterson has little time to make enemies -- with the state's economy souring, a budget deficit at more than $4.5 billion and a need to restore the trust of the executive branch of government in New York.

-- Tom Precious

Standing by her man in the worst of times

  Silda Wall Spitzer stood there, silently, as her husband acknowledged in vague but unmistakable terms that he had indeed been unfaithful.

   He did not deny what the news reports had already made clear -- that he'd been caught in a tryst with a high-priced prostitute in a fancy hotel.

   We all studied her face.

   What must she be thinking? Did she have any inkling? And, perhaps most puzzling to us, why is she standing next to him?

   Some have criticized Silda Spitzer for publicly showing support for her husband. Others say it is up to her to stay or go.

   So we ask you? Would you stand by a cheating spouse for all the world to see? Why or why not? And what should be next for Silda Spitzer?

  -- Maki Becker

The fall of Eliot Spitzer

    Gov. Eliot L. Spitzer, the once-mighty Sheriff of Wall Street, dubbed the "Crusader of the Year" by Time magazine during his attorney general days, took a sizeable fall from grace Monday following allegations he was a client of a high-priced international prostitution ring.

   Called "Client 9" by federal prosecutors in court papers filed against the call service, the governor is now facing everything from possible federal charges to resignation from office he has held for only 15 months.

   The sex scandal of Albany sex scandals has broad implications, coming as officials are frantically trying to put together a state budget deal in the next three weeks and at a time when Spitzer had been trying to use his now-evaporated political capital to help Democrats take over the Senate from the GOP.

   It is a long fall from grace for the Democratic governor, who came into office vowing that on "Day One everything changes." Now, the governor, who made legal mince meat of corporate executives in his many Wall Street investigations during his attorney general days, found himself in the position of defending himself against evidence that includes wiretaps - the same types of evidence he used to target corporate abusers.

   As word of the scandal spread Monday, the governor found few allies to come forth and defend him. Democrats and Republicans agreed such silence is not unusual considering how much Spitzer alienated himself from lawmakers during his first combative year in office.

   The governor, who did not deny any of the allegations against him, has sought over the years to portray himself the Albany outsider. That was evident Monday as the circle closed around him and the line of his cheerleaders was all but empty.

   What was to defend, they said. Court papers depict "Client 9" trying to replenish his financial account with the call service, devising ways to get the prostitute into his Washington hotel, $4,300 paid to the service, and talk of the client wanting sexual services that a prostitute "might not think were safe."

   The questions are many. Do federal prosecutors amend their indictment that included Spitzer as "Client 9" to now call him a defendant? Does Spitzer resign from office today? Does he try to hold out a resignation as a bargaining chip with the U.S. Attorney's Office to avoid prosecution?

   And, will New Yorkers have to start using the term, "Governor David Paterson" anytime soon?

  --- Tom Precious

Republicans should challenge DA Clark

   Voters deserve a choice on Election Day. They particularly deserve one when the incumbent is controversial Frank Clark. The district attorney's serial missteps in recent years … from the Lynn DeJac fiasco to an initial reluctance to free wrongly convicted Anthony Capozzi … make him prime fodder for a public referendum.

   That voter choice may not come. Republican Party boss Jim Domagalski said this week he has not yet found a candidate to oppose Clark, 65, a Democrat. If he does not, he likely will hand the Republican line to Clark in the November election.

  It reeks of cross-party coziness that has no place in this campaign. Clark's series of recent misjudgments stained his image, and a September primary against ex-prosecutor Ken Case … who cannot be counted out … will drain his funds and energy. Clark's vulnerability ought to make him a prime target for Republicans. Yet Domagalski has yet to draw a bead.

   There may be a reason for the Republican party boss' lack of urgency. Clark, a Democrat, funneled more than $16,000 to the Republican Party and its candidates since September 2005. An endorsement will undoubtedly bring more money and the promise of jobs for Republicans.

   Is this any way to run a democracy? I do not think so.

  … Donn Esmonde

Pennsylvania: The new Iowa

   WASHINGTON … Doug Hattaway, a spokesman for Hillary Clinton, summed it up pretty neatly.

   "Pennsylvania is the new Iowa," he was quoted widely as saying this week.

   In other words, the marathon race for the Democratic presidential nomination is starting all over again in a state that's a mirror image of upstate New York.

   There's not one primary or caucus scheduled for the six weeks prior to the April 22 Pennsylvania primary. That means Clinton and Barack Obama, and the army of scribes and videographers that shadow them, will be crisscrossing the Keystone State as if it were the Hawkeye State from now until the flowers bloom.

   And to hear the pundits tell it, even that contest, the largest remaining on the primary calendar, is unlikely to resolve this historic battle between Clinton and Obama.

   Instead, it's likely to plod on through Indiana and North Carolina and Oregon and Kentucky and a bunch of smaller states.

   And it's not likely to end until the "superdelegates" … the 800 or so party elders who automatically get seats at the Democratic National Convention in August … decide who the nominee should be.

   That leaves open the possibility that the nominee will be the candidate who finished second in the primary vote and second in the count of elected delegates.

   Which poses a question:

   For the Democratic Party, will Denver be the new Waterloo?

   -- Jerry Zremski

   

The band plays on for Clinton

COLUMBUS, Ohio — It ain't over.

Yet again, Hillary Clinton has come back, winning a double-digit landslide over Barack Obama in the Ohio primary and apparently winning a real nail-biter against him in Texas.

And so the coronation will have to wait, at least until Pennsylvania votes on April 22, or maybe far beyond that.

Meanwhile, the Republicans have picked their nominee: John McCain.

So the question is: Is this prolonged fight good for the Democratic Party and the eventual nominee's chances, or is it good for McCain?

— Jerry Zremski

Here she comes again

   BEAUMONT, Texas - Perhaps it's time for us to retire that old phrase "the Perils of Pauline" and replace it with "the Hazards of Hillary."

   After all, Hillary Clinton has dodged many hazards in her political life - and just when you think she's down and out, she comes back.

   It happened after she lost the Iowa caucuses, it happened on Super Tuesday, and it could be happening again.

   After losing 11 straight contests in her fight for the Democratic presidential nomination, after the national media all but crowned Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee, Hillary may be clawing and scratching her way back into the game.

   Ten consecutive polls had shown Obama with a lead in Texas, but two of the three most recent polls show Clinton ahead. And while last week's polls showed Clinton's longtime lead in Ohio melting away, four March polls show her with a lead of between 6 and 12 points.

   Of course, the voters of Texas and Ohio will answer for sure whether Hillary is on her way back when they go to vote in primaries today. But win or lose, Hillary's campaign raises some fundamental questions.

   Why don't things ever come easy for her?

   And will how will this Perils of Pauline/Hazards of Hillary act ever end?

   --- Jerry Zremski

Clinton, Obama campaigns spend time examining who said what first

  AUSTIN, Texas -- The debate within the debate was all about plagiarism.

  As Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama squared off on health care and who has the experience and judgment to be president, their respective press shops did battle over who stole what.

  Truth be told, so did the candidates, but briefly. The onstage argument over Obama's use of some lines from Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick -- a co-chair of his campaign -- petered out quickly after Clinton had the following exchange with the audience.

  Clinton: "That's not change you can believe in; that's change you can Xerox."

  The audience: Groan. Boo.

  That didn't stop the Clinton campaign from emailing reporters a comparison between Obama's debate comments on workers who have "seen equipment unbolted from the floors of factories and shipped to China," and Sen. John Kerry's oddly similar comments from 2004.

  And it didn't stop the Obama campaign from comparing Clinton's much lauded closing comments with some sorta-similar ones from former Sen. John Edwards.

  "You know, whatever happens, we're going to be fine," she said. "You know, we have strong support from our families and our friends. I just hope that we'll be able to say the same thing about the American people. And that's what this election should be about."

  "What's not at stake are any of us," Edwards said. "All of us are going to be just fine no matter what happens in this election. But what's at stake is whether America is going to be fine."

  So what do you think: is any of the above plagiarism? Or is it just ... well, you pick the noun.

--Jerry Zremski
    

McCain's Obama allusion: illusion?

   WASHINGTON  -- Well, it sounds as if John McCain is starting to get some notion of who he will  be running against.

   At a victory party after the "Potomac Primaries" in Alexandria, Va., on Tuesday, McCain stole a Barack Obama slogan, telling the crowd he "fired up and ready to go." He also mocked Obama as a good speech-maker who had little to talk about but worn-out Democratic ideas.

   "To encourage a crowd with only rhetoric ... is not a promise of hope," McCain said. "It's a platitude."

   Of course, "hope" is the mantra of the Obama campaign, much as "experience" is Hillary Clinton's calling card.

   McCain made passing reference to the fact that there are still two candidates in the Democratic presidential race, saying: "We know where either of their candidates will lead this country, and we dare not let them."

   But then he went on and on, without mentioning names, about Obama.

   So what do you think? Is McCain jumping the gun?

-- Jerry Zremski

Is it do or die time for Clinton?

   WASHINGTON - The terms "Clinton" and "losing streak" have rarely been seen together in the same sentence, but there they are.

   Hillary Rodham Clinton lost four primaries or caucuses over the weekend to Barack Obama, and if the polls and pundits are to be believed (I know, that phrase might be worthy of a separate post), she will lose three more today. The "Potomac Primary," consisting of Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia, is likely to swing Obama's way.

   But with it, will the momentum swing as well?

   

   The momentum has been like mercury in this campaign, with Obama's Iowa win meaning nothing in New Hampshire and his huge run-up in the polls before Super Tuesday largely disappearing when the voters started entering the voting booths.

   

   But there's something about losing four contests in a row, or seven, or nine, that may be a little different.

   

   Given that Obama is also favored in the Feb. 19 states of Wisconsin and Hawaii, Clinton could arrive at her "fire wall" states of Ohio and Texas having lost nine in a row.

   

   Will it make any difference to voters in Ohio and Texas? What do you think?

 

   --- Jerry Zremski

Obama comfortable on Hillary's turf

   Just like it was advertised, the New York State Democratic primary for president proved a barn burner.

   While Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton had no trouble winning the New York popular vote by a 57 to 40 percent tally, Sen. Barack Obama snagged a substantial number of delegates from her -- right on her home turf.

   Talk about the "Audacity of Hope" (the title of Obama's latest book), some might call it just plain audacity.

   Still, delegates are what this Democratic contest is all about. And even the most optimistic Clinton supporters knew that Obama's strength -- especially in urban districts like the local one represented by Rep. Louise M. Slaughter -- would end up providing at least some delegates to the Obama cause.

   Indeed, Obama won 56 delegates compared to Clinton's 89, according to state Democratic officials -- about the best the Illinois senator could count on from the Empire State.

   The result is that New York -- Hillary Clinton's adopted state -- now finds itself almost as divided as the rest of the nation's Democrats when it comes to this year's presidential contest.

   The results show that Clinton maintained a strong organization that prevailed in most areas of the state. But they also show that Obama, with nowhere near as strong a statewide or local team, more than held his own in the middle of "enemy territory."

   And oh yes, those staid Republicans produced a nice and orderly win for Sen. John McCain, just one week after Rudy Giuliani ended his presidential effort and brought the New York GOP with him to McCain.

   It all shows why this presidential contest has a long way to go before it is anywhere near settled, and another reason why this election seems to have captivated all of us like no other in generations.

     -- Robert J. McCarthy

Battle lines drawn amid shock waves of Super Tuesday

   NEW YORK -- Tuesday was the night the fight was supposed to end, but it's only just begun.

   Early indications are that both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama had decent nights on Super Tuesday, with Clinton rolling up more big-state victories and Obama taking more states overall in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination.

   And while the most important number -- the count of delegates each candidate won -- won't be precisely known until sometime Wednesday, it's likely to be close in the end. And that means the battle for the nomination will continue for weeks or months more.

   So much for Hillary's "inevitability."

   She was the candidate with all the advantages: unmatchable name recognition, deep political roots all across the country, and the ability to raise the tens of millions of dollars it takes to run for president.

   And now, more than halfway through the primary campaign season, a 46-year-old man with three years experience in the Senate has, apparently, fought her to a draw.

   Which raises a question.

   How on earth did this happen?

  -- Jerry Zremski

Watching history unfold from afar

   LOS ANGELES -- In arenas usually frequented by basketball teams and rock stars, overflow crowds of thousands of Democrats are gathering to hear Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

   Over the last two days alone, Clinton drew 6,500 to an event in San Diego and nearly 10,000 to a convention center in San Jose, not to mention the 5,000 or so who showed up this morning at Cal State Los Angeles.

   And those are exactly the kinds of crowds Obama has drawn for months.

   There's a lot of excitement out here on the campaign trail. Seeing a black man and a white woman going head to head for the Democratic nomination, voters freely say they feel they are witnessing history and want to be a part of it.

   In Buffalo, however, you will likely have to read about it, or watch it all on television.

   Such is the disadvantage of having a home-state senator in the race. With Clinton enjoying a big lead in Western New York, it's unlikely that either candidate will stop here before the New York primary on Tuesday.

   So you have to judge it from afar. How historic is this race, really?

-- Jerry Zremski

Was Hillary playing to her Hispanic base?

  SAN DIEGO -- You notice certain things about a Hillary Clinton crowd. First and foremost, there are a lot of women, especially women of a certain age, who will tell you: if not her, who? And if not now, when?

   But there's one other thing that's notable about the Clinton crowds other than the vast numbers of women who want a woman president. Particularly in states like California, you will notice a disproportionate number of Hispanics.

   Clinton won the Latino vote in Nevada by a margin of 64 percent to 26 percent over Barack Obama. And judging from the way things look, the same thing could happen here, in the biggest state in the union, on Super Tuesday.

   I say this having spent the last two days in California, talking to Latino voting experts and Latino voters at Clinton and Obama campaign events.

   Not one of those voters brought up the issue that threw Clinton off her stride last fall: driver's licenses for illegal immigrants.

   But just about every one of the Hispanic Clinton supporters brought up the good times of the 1990s and Hillary Clinton's long-standing relationship with the Latino community nationwide.

   That's surely good news to Clinton, but it does also raise a question: might those voters have been on her mind during that debate last fall when she stumbled all over that question on driver's licenses?

-- Jerry Zremski

Hillary's war vote -- the issue that won't die

  LOS ANGELES -- At first glance, it looked like one of those rare Kumbaya debates, with hardly a harsh word exchanged between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

   But then, late in the event, before an audience that included Stevie Wonder and Rob Reiner and America Ferrera of "Ugly Betty," the issue that was supposed to drag down Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign came back with a vengeance.

   Again Hillary Clinton was forced to defend her vote for the resolution that led to the Iraq War -- and five days before Super Tuesday, no less.

   Clinton repeated the argument that she's always made, that she made the best judgment she could have on the vote based on what she knew at the time. And again she refused to apologize for a vote the many Democrats regard as a mistake.

   And in response, Obama made the point he made before the race focused so heavily on the economy, as it has in recent weeks.

   "We need better judgment when we decide to send our young men and women into war," he said.

   So what do you think? Obama is still obviously holding Clinton's war vote against her. Are you?

-- Jerry Zremski

Is Higgins losing sight of the big picture?

  No politician is perfect, and indeed the definition of perfection depends on the views of the person doing the defining. It seemed to me that, for years, Brian Higgins was as close to perfect as any politician around here. He is almost single-handedly responsible for recent traction on the south-of-downtown waterfront. He figured out the problem -- lack of road and bridge access to the land -- and set about correcting it, first by taking on the transportation authority that let the land sit idle for a half-century.

   Higgins' willingness, unique among local politicians, to wrestle the gorillas of state agencies and unaccountable authorities -- from the NFTA to the state power Authority -- earned him massive credibility. His successes on the waterfront and in prying an extra $175 million for the region from the power authority relicensing padded his popularity. Yet in the past year, the shine is off of the brass. He angered many folks by backing a wrongheaded plan, since abandoned, to stuff a big-box Bass Pro onto the historic Central Wharf. He backs the expansion of a Peace Bridge plaza that would decimate a West Side neighborhood. He favors a state plan that retains the upraised wall of Route 5, which experts say inhibits the future
waterfront development Higgins has fought for.

   In each case, he seems to favor expedience over longer-term success, which seems inconsistent with the stands he previously took. Higgins says he has not changed. Personally, I prefer the older model to the recent version.

-- Donn Esmonde

Down on his luck, Giuliani muses about old nemesis

      POMPANO BEACH, Fla. … Sen. Barack Obama remains very much a part of the Democratic race for
president, but to hear Republicans talk, you'd think Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton was already signed, sealed and delivered as the opposition.

   The New York senator's name dominated the Thursday night debate held at Florida Atlantic University, where even her husband -- former President Bill Clinton -- was derided by Republican candidate Mitt Romney when he said he couldn't imagine anything worse than two Clintons again controlling the White House.

   So reporters asked Republican candidate Rudy Giuliani about it the other day during a campaign stop in Miami.

   "What's the fascination with Hillary, Mr. Mayor?" they asked. "Is she the Dem the Republicans want to face?"

   The former mayor of New York thought for a moment, and all but acknowledged the party's eagerness to take her on.

   "The reality is that she develops in our own base a stronger reaction than the other two Democratic candidates," he said. "Running against Hillary, certainly, the emotions would be that much greater in that she is probably the one that personifies liberal government, big government, socialized medicine, stepping back in Iraq."

   But the GOP, he predicted, will unify around its eventual nominee.

   It all marks the second campaign in which Giuliani has been in the forefront of criticizing his New York colleague, whom he was slated to face in the 2000 Senate race before illness and publicity over his marital difficulties forced him to the sidelines.

   Now the former mayor's only problem is that while he calls her the "odds-on favorite to win the  emocratic nomination," his fortunes -- for the moment at least -- do not appear that bright.

  -- Robert J. McCarthy

Web-savvy politicians hope to win friends

    Assemblyman Sam Hoyt and County Legislator Ed Rath III want to be your friend.

   They're just two of the growing number of politicians who are turning to Facebook, the  social-networking Web site, to woo potential voters and recruit campaign volunteers.

   The major presidential candidates have an extensive presence on Facebook, with Barack Obama, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Mike Huckabee grabbing the strongest support.

   Local pols such as Hoyt, Rath, Assemblyman Mike Cole and congressional candidate Jon Powers have Facebook profiles and scads of online friends.

   Experts say Facebook, MySpace, YouTube -- for video sharing -- and Flickr -- for photo sharing -- offer potential for politicians looking to reach young voters in an unorthodox way.

   Facebook users can "friend" a politician, join a group of fellow supporters and learn about upcoming campaign events they might want to attend.

   But will this really help a candidate win an election? Will Facebook friends become voters in the primaries or the general election?

   Or is this just another awkward attempt by adults to try to take over the popular Web site of the moment?

-- Stephen T. Watson

Abortion -- no longer a black-and-white issue

   WASHINGTON -- It looked much like the way the March for Life has looked for decades, with tens of thousands of people bundled up against the cold and trudging from the White House to the Supreme Court, bearing the familiar posters of aborted fetuses.

   But in the words of the people at the march, there was something decidedly different on this, the 35th anniversary of the Supreme Court's Roe vs. Wade ruling.

   "The current situation is very encouraging for us," said Wanda Franz, president of the National Right to Life Committee.

   "I think the consciousness of people in Buffalo has been raised -- and the raising of consciousness has made a difference," said Stasia Zoladz Vogel, president of the Buffalo Regional Right to Life Committee.

   Franz and Vogel were commenting on the topic that was on the minds of many at Tuesday's March for Life: a report that showed a 25 percent drop in abortions nationwide since 1990. In metro Buffalo, the drop is even sharper -- 42 percent.

   Abortion opponents said such statistics show that their side is winning the battle for public opinion, and thus the battle for tougher abortion restrictions nationwide.

   Nancy Keenan, president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, agreed that her side is losing some of the gains won by Roe vs. Wade.

   And that prompts Keenan to talk in a decidedly different way than many abortion rights supporters.

   "We need to acknowledge what we all know to be true today: a woman's  right to choose is a morally complex issue, and a lot less black and white than it's made out to be," she said. "When we don't acknowledge this complexity, it looks like we don't get it and don't have a moral compass of our own."

   Think about all of this for a moment. Could it be that the abortion debate, which has been portrayed as a black-or-white issue for so long, is actually changing?

-- Jerry Zremski

Caucusing Nevada style is a calculated gamble

   LAS VEGAS -- Presidential politics comes to Sin City today, and in many ways it's going to be a union job, with the unionized casino workers caucusing in the shadow of the roulette wheels.

   Yes, there's too much irony to bear in that last sentence, but no matter, there's something serious underlying it all.

   Think about this for a minute. The Culinary Workers Union, Nevada's largest, arranged it so its members who work on the Strip can caucus either near their homes or where they work, which just so happen to be casinos.

   They won't go into the privacy of a voting booth to cast their ballots. No, they will caucus.

   They will gather in groups in conference rooms more often frequented by hung-over conventioneers … the Hillary Clinton people in one corner, the Barack Obama people in another, the John Edwards people over yonder, and Dennis Kucinich way out over there somewhere.

   And the union that lobbied for the gambling hall caucus sites has endorsed Obama. And in many cases the shop steward will be watching the caucusing.

   This is what presidential politics is in Nevada under the quaintly undemocratic caucus system.

   Now I'm a newspaper reporter, and I'm supposed to be objective and just ask questions, so let me ask you this:

   Is this any way to pick a president?
-- Jerry Zremski

Fallibility trumps inevitability

  It must have been hell in Hillaryland on Friday.

   Everyone knew that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton might lose the Iowa caucuses -- but everybody supposedly in the know, including Clinton pollster Mark Penn, scoffed early this week when a Des Moines Register poll showed her losing to Sen. Barack Obama by seven points.

   The Register was wrong. She lost by eight points.

   Worse yet, entrance polls taken of people entering the caucus sites delivered devastating news for Clinton. A plurality of women voted for Obama, whose message of change trumped her message of experience.

   In other words, Iowa Democrats saw Clinton and heard Clinton and rejected Clinton. So much for inevitability.

   And now a badly damaged Clinton moves on to New Hampshire, which very well may answer the question: will the Democrats nominate the first-ever female presidential nominee, or the first-ever black president?

   What do you think?

-- Jerry Zremski

Sweating chill in the polls, Giuliani stages fire drill in Iowa

  CLIVE, Iowa -- Rudy Giuliani has always been tough on crime, but based on his campaign appearances Saturday, he seems to have a soft spot in his heart for apparent fire code violations.

   First a battalion of journalists and Giuliani volunteers crowded into a small office in a strip mall here for a meet-and-greet with the GOP presidential contender. Standing shoulder-to-shoulder and back-to-front in sweaters and parkas, the crowd quickly began to melt.

   "Hey, can somebody crack the door?" a network cameraman shouted. "It's so hot, somebody's gonna pass out."

   That never happened, but after speaking for about five minutes Giuliani didn't look so good, with beads of sweat glistening off his pale forehead.

   As if that wasn't bad enough, the entire scene repeated itself a few hours later in Indianola, as Giuiani and his attendant horde pushed their way into Funaro's Deli and Bakery for his second meet-and-sweat of the day.

   Believe it or not, all of this poses some important political questions.

   Why is Giuliani back in Iowa five days before the Iowa caucuses when the polls make it look like he's about to get crushed here?

   And why, five days before those caucuses, is he having intimate meet-and-sweats here in the Des Moines area while scheduling bigger town hall meetings in rural burgs like Fort Dodge and Mount Pleasant?

   I explore questions like that in my story in Sunday's News, but if you have any possible answers, I'd love to hear them, too.

-- Jerry Zremski

Negative Obama ad detonates minefield of doubts about Hillary

    Nobody spawns hate mail like Hillary Clinton spawns hate mail.

   Practically every time I write about the New York senator … and I write about her a lot … I get the most nasty, vituperative, overheated e-mails you can ever imagine.

   And that's a description of what these e-mailers say about me. What they say about her is much worse.

   Most of these e-mails come from a rather predictable cast of characters: folks I have known virtually now for years, most of them from the right wing of the political spectrum.

   But what surprised me on my trip last week to Iowa, where Clinton is campaigning for the presidency, is that I heard the same sort of thing … from some Democrats.

   It seems that the Clinton campaign's decision to go negative on Sen. Barack Obama had unleashed some pent-up doubts that Democrats have about their own presidential front-runner.

   You will see more about all of that in my story in Wednesday's Buffalo News.

   And it all makes me wonder: How deep are those doubts? And how widespread?

-- Jerry Zremski

Rudy stays above the fray

   BOCA RATON, Fla. -- Those close to former New York Gov. Rudy Giuliani said he would wage an unconventional campaign for president -- and has he ever.

   While his Republican rivals are dashing through the plains of Iowa, he's spending more time here in the Sunshine State, hoping its Jan. 29 primary will provide a "fire wall" for his candidacy after likely losses in Iowa and New Hampshire.

   And that's just the start of it. Whereas Giuliani's main rivals in both parties routinely spend two or three days in one state before moving on, Giuliani plays hopscotch across the country, often staying in a state only for one rally and one fund-raiser.

   And while the other presidential candidates routinely release their public schedules, Giuliani's itineraries often remain cloaked in mystery.

   For example, I never would have known about his rally here -- the centerpiece of our front-page campaign story today-- without doing a database search for "Giuliani" and "Florida." That's  where I discovered that the campaign apparently had announced the event to the Florida press only.

   And to top it all off, Giuliani rushed off the stage after his event here without lingering to kiss babies and shake hands.

   In contrast, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton -- the reputedly icy Democratic front-runner -- routinely stays for an hour after each campaign event to greet  everyone who wants to meet her. What's more, she seems to enjoy every encounter with every voter.

   Maybe none of this will matter when the voters start voting, but my experience in 16 years of campaign reporting is that candidates perform better when they work hard to make the most of every encounter with voters.

   What do you think? How far can Giuliani's high-flying, above-it-all campaign really fly?

  -- Jerry Zremski

The presidential race gets more intense in Iowa

DES MOINES, Iowa - This is the sort of place where you can buy a Hillary Clinton T-shirt, or a Rudy Giuliani T-shirt, at the airport gift shop.

In fact, they're in the front, right where you walk in.

With a little more than a year to go before the presidential election, the campaign in this politically obsessed state is nearing its halfway point. And while the national polls make it look like Clinton and Giuliani are the runaway favorites for their party nominations, Clinton is locked in a tight struggle here, while Giuliani is way behind.

Iowa will kick off the voting with its caucuses on Jan. 3, the race here is intensifying. Clinton will continue one of her regular tours here this week and Giuliani is set to be back soon, too.

I did my own tour this weekend, following three Democratic candidates (the GOP candidates weren't here and calling top Republicans across the state. And what struck me most was that so many people seemed so truly torn between two, three, or even four candidates.

It was refreshing, really. I talked to dozens of voters who had smart, insightful (as opposed to inciteful) comments about the race … and it made me think that many people in Buffalo … Republicans, Democrats and Independents alike … must be torn, too.

Does that sound like you? If so, what's on your mind?

--Jerry Zremski

Rudy's connecting with voters in New Hampshire

  LONDONDERRY, N.H. … Unlikely as it may seem, an old punk rock song by the late, great band the Clash echoed through my mind as I followed Republican presidential front-runner Rudy Giuliani through the nation's first primary state last week.

   The name of the song, for those of you who never pogo-danced or never wore a skinny tie, is "Rudy Can't Fail."

   It's a catchy tune that was about the "rude boys" of Jamaica's gritty streets. It has nothing to do with GOP politics … unless you consider that Rudy Giuliani has been accused of being, well, less than polite on occasion, or the fact that he's now clearly the leading Republican candidate for president.

   Truth be told, Rudy didn't fail with the voters he met last week. Long criticized as an uneven and unenthusiastic campaigner, Giuliani was clearly loving it everywhere he went. He kissed babies, signed autographs and spoke in clear, clipped terms on one issue after another in a way that said: You may not agree with me, but this is where I stand.

   And even some conservative Christian voters … who were supposed to flee from the thrice-married, pro-choice, gay-friendly former New York mayor who once dressed up in drag for a skit at a press dinner … told me they were sold.

   It was enough to make you think that the pundits, who have said all along that Giuliani simply couldn't get the GOP nomination, might be wrong.

   So what do you think? Can Rudy fail? And if so, when, where and how? 

--Jerry Zremski

Voters in Niagara Falls have an important choice to make

   Voters in Niagara Falls will elect a new mayor on Tuesday after a process that started with six candidates and has narrowed to two: Paul Dyster and Candra Thomason.

   A new infusion of money from Seneca Niagara Casino slots money and the relicensing of the Niagara Power Project creates the potential for revitalization, but economic, social and political forces that have long held the city back remain.

   Can a new city chief executive officer make an impact in a city with big promise and big problems?

   If so, how, and where should they start?

   What would you like to see the new mayor accomplish in Niagara Falls during his or her first 100 days in office?

— Niagara County Bureau Chief Scott Scanlon

Hillary's awkward moment

   For months, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign was the political equivalent of the Queen Mary: huge, opulent, and virtually unchallenged as the best on the seven seas.

   But in two short minutes during a debate in Philadelphia Tuesday, the ship's captain turned the rudder sharply one way and then the other, thereby interrupting the smooth ride she had been enjoying on the way to the Democratic nomination.

   Asked if she thought it made sense to give driver's licenses to illegal immigrants, she first indicated that she never said that it did.

   But then, moments later, she said: "I think it makes a lot of sense."

   Clinton's campaign offered a clarifying statement on Wednesday, saying she backed Gov. Eliot L. Spitzer's controversial proposal to offer licenses to undocumented aliens.

   Nevertheless, her opponents remained focused on her awkward moment from a night before, which was reminiscent of Sen. John Kerry's infamous quote on whether he supported additional funding for the Iraq War.

   "I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it," Kerry, D-Mass., said during his ill-fated 2004 race for the presidency.

   So Hillary said she never said it makes sense for illegal immigrants to get licenses before she said she thought it made sense. And if that last sentence doesn't make sense, well, then you know the problem the Clinton campaign now
faces.

   The question is: Will it matter?

   Will Clinton's less-than-perfect moment be quickly forgotten, or will it
become emblematic of her campaign?

   Is it a sign that she's human, finally stumbling as all presidential
candidates do, or a sign that she's fatally prone to take two sides of the
same issue?

   Given that this is Hillary Clinton that we're talking about, there's surely
no shortage of opinion.

… Jerry Zremski 

Keane and Collins are running neck-and-neck

With today's front-page story showing that the race for county executive is a dead heat, statistically speaking, the big question is what does the poll mean.

Democrats outnumber Republicans by 120,000 in the county, so Democrat Jame Keane should be expected to be leading Republican Christopher Collins. But the presence of a second Democrat -- Paul Clark, running on the Indepence line -- changes the equation. Adding Clark's 16 percent to the Keane column would give Keane a sizeable lead.

How do you think the poll will change campaign tactics? What do you think Clark's role in the election will be? ANd who would you like to see elected county executive?

Falls mayoral race is down to the final two: Dyster vs. Thomason

Now there are two.

   The field of candidates in the Niagara Falls mayoral race once stood at six.

   Three candidates … including incumbent Vince Anello … were tossed off the ballot because they couldn't muster enough valid petition signatures to run in the Democratic primary.

   Current City Council member Lewis "Babe" Rotella lost that primary Tuesday to Paul Dyster, who now faces Republican Candra Thomason in the Nov. 6 general election.

   Both remaining candidates are considered political outsiders, though they have previously served on the Council. The City Democratic Committee endorsed Rotella and the County Republican Party has so far given Thomason limited support.

   The views of the remaining candidates on several key issues can be found online by going to this link, or to the City & Region section of buffalonews.com and scrolling down to Niagara Elections.

   Meanwhile, what do you make of last week's primary victory by Dyster, which surprised Democratic insiders not so much with the result but by the size of Dyster's win? He gathered 62 percent of the vote, compared to 38 percent for Rotella.

   Who do you think will win the general election and why?

   What question would you ask the remaining candidate if you could?

--Niagara County Bureau Chief Scott Scanlon

Keane is able, but a new challenge awaits

   Round One is over; now let the general election games begin.

   After Jim Keane's surprising rout of West Seneca Supervisor Paul Clark and former Mayor Jim Griffin on Tuesday, an intense campaign is already under way against Republican Chris Collins. In fact, a confident Keane has been targeting Collins in speeches and ads even during the primary, and Collins shot right back at Keane on Primary Night.

   The most interesting aspect of Keane's landslide was just that - the landslide. Few political observers without access to hard data predicted such a margin of victory for the former deputy county executive. Not only did he pummel his two opponents, but unofficial returns show Keane winning every town and city in Erie County.

   But there was an additional interesting statistic in Tuesday's final numbers. That was the turnout of 19 percent, which fell far below even the most pessimistic predictions.

   One reason may be what was outlined in a story that appeared in Saturday's editions of The Buffalo News. Many observers felt few real issues were addressed in the primary campaign, that only extraneous and made-up subjects dominated the public face that Keane and Clark presented through their ads.

   Now another big battle is brewing between Keane and Collins, and Keane has to feel good about the momentum he brings to the new effort. But after less than one in five Democrats thought the primary campaign was worth turning out to vote, it will now be most interesting to see if the tone of the general election changes - and whether any more citizens think it's important enough to actually cast their ballot.

   --- Robert J. McCarthy

Any hope for local Republicans?

It's been written that the Republican Party in Buffalo, and perhaps Western New York, has become a dead-letter.

After the retirement in 1988 of then Congressman Jack Kemp, R-Hamburg, who preached lower taxes and less government regulation, and business growth, the party seemed to revert to type: Just an organization out to capture patronage and deals.

   Is there any way to revive the GOP in Buffalo?

---Douglas Turner, News Washington Bureau

Clinton wins in Chicago

   WASHINGTON - Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton made mince-meat of her Democratic presidential challengers in Chicago last night.

She stayed on message, came prepared to deflect tough questions, and never lost her poise. The senator enhanced her likelihood of winning the nomination. What can stop her from winning the presidency?

---Douglas Turner, News Washington Bureau

Delivering on promises

Satish Mohan defied tremendous odds to become supervisor of Amherst a year and a half ago. Now he's facing an even bigger challenge … trying to run the affairs of the Buffalo area's largest and most influential municipality.

When Mohan decided to run for Amherst supervisor he had no political party backing. He had never circulated nomination petitions, or bought a political ad. And he certainly had never put in his time working his way up the ladder of local party politics. 

But what caught on with Amherst voters seems to be Mohan's sincerity and his unconventional way of asking questions that shake up the status quo in Amherst Town Hall. In today's story we see what can happen to a candidate like Mohan, after he takes office and tries to carry out his goals and pledges.

Clearly, Mohan has made his mistakes and he's had no shortage of critics. He says the town needs a new board, one more willing to act on his proposed reforms.

Are Amherst residents tiring of the ongoing strife at Town Hall? Who's to blame for it, Mohan or his political opponents? And will the citizens of Amherst have to wait until the November elections to see any progress?

-- Thomas J. Dolan

Gore-Obama '08

      Barack Obama didn't give his Top 10  reasons why he doesn't want to be vice president, but he made it pretty clear to David Letterman that the No. 2 job doesn't interest him.

   Appearing Monday on the Letterman show, Obama said he wasn't interested in running for vice president on a Clinton-Obama ticket. Who can blame him? Hillary Clinton, with a far better political infrastructure in place, raised just $1 million more than the Illinois senator in the first three months of the year -- $26 million to Obama's $25 million. 

   But Obama's assertions aside, there's a long history of presidential candidates who say they have no interest in the second spot only to take it when offered.

   Moreover, part of the fun of a presidential campaign is playing fantasy politics, which includes mixing and matching candidates on various tickets. In fact, in New York, T-shirts have started to appear with this suggested ticket: Gore-Obama in 08.

     --Jerry Goldberg

Patronage at City Hall

   In general, patronage rewards are difficult secrets to keep, so rumors had been circulating for weeks that Alfred T. Coppola would be scoring a job that Mayor Byron W. Brown could bestow.

   Initially, the Brown administration had said only that Coppola was being considered for a job at the Buffalo Employment and Training Center along with other applicants.

   Lo and behold, when Coppola did work his first day there, some people were eager to let The Buffalo News know about it.

   I called Al immediately, but we didn't talk at length until a few days later, because of my schedule, not his. Brian Meyer talked to the mayor and his people.

   They all insist this was no payoff. We just presented the circumstances and let the readers decide.

   … Matt Spina