Crunching state payroll and deficit numbers

   As I'm watching this train wreck of a state budget crumple like an accordion, I've wondered when any of our fearful leaders in Albany are going to start talking the obvious.

   Layoffs.

   Face it, any company in the state's position, with a projected deficit of $1.5 billion this budget year and at least $12.5 billion next year, would have started cutting jobs by now. But nary is heard a discouraging word out of Albany on this front. Yet.

   There's a lot to work with. The state employs 239,830 - as in full-time employees - and that's not including the various authorities. That head count is up 7,979 jobs, or 3.4 percent in the past two years, since the Democrats regained control of the governor's office.

   What's more, the pace of job growth has gained speed in the past year, despite a supposed hiring freeze.

   This leaves us with more state employees than we've had since 1991.

   Depressed yet?

   A review of state payroll figures complied by the comptroller's office shows some noteworthy trends.

   For starters, guess which of the 59 departments, divisions and agencies experienced the greatest growth, as a percentage of it's work force, over the past two years?

   The governor's office.

   Yup, the governor's office. It's up 25 percent, having added 35 jobs to what had been 139 positions under former Gov. George Pataki.

   The two state-funded university systems lead the way in terms of sheer job growth. SUNY added 2,441 jobs, the City University of New York 2,204. Together, they account for more than half of the state's overall job growth.

   About half of the rest are in three health-related departments - health, mental health and mental retardation and developmental disabilities. They total 1,826 jobs.

   Next in line is the judicial system, up 832 jobs.

   Who has lost jobs? The biggest drop has been parks, recreation and historic preservation, down 167 jobs, or 4.8 percent.

   So, with all this said, how much do you save by whacking jobs?

   The average state worker costs $86,858 including both wages and benefits.

   I did a spreadsheet that costs out various scenarios, involving anywhere from 5,000 to 25,000 job cuts, which would account for anywhere from 2 to 10 percent of the state workforce. (Mario Cuomo cut about 18,000 jobs in the early 1990s in the face of a fiscal meltdown.)

   Cut 5,000 jobs and you save a little less that $435 million a year. Cut 25,000 - 10 percent of positions - and you save $2.2 billion.

   Considering what we're up against - a need for some $14 billion in cuts - my math tells me that layoffs don't make much of a dent in the deficit.

   Suppose you go whole hog and cut 10 percent of jobs. Roll back spending to the level of two years ago. You end up saving about $8 billion. That still leaves you with $6 billion to go.

   Ouch.

   Next year is going to be ugly. Real ugly.

   The Empire Center for New York State Policy publishes something called Public Payroll Watch, which is where I've drawn my numbers from. Here's the latest report. Here's another report from a year ago, which includes an expanded analysis.

   Finally, the Empire Center publishes a blog called Public Payroll Watch, which includes links to the day's related news stories  I've added it to my favorites list - maybe you should, too.

Comments

[BobbyCat]

What are the mechanics of lay-offs? Who lays-off whom? How does that work? Do department heads have that independent authority? At what levels? Is that solely the responsibility of the governor? What role can the legislature play?

[Cynical at Best]

Lets start with the over $200K crowd. They insist that they need to be paid like this, because that's what they can get in private industry. Well, I say no time like the present for the $200K and up crowd to find out.

[RocketKid]

New York has to start somewhere. One area not mentioned are pension and benefit cutbacks. With the generous pensions this blog sight talks about, sounds like there is a lot of room for improvement. Otherwise, their only hope is a federal bailout and I don't see Southern Senators and Congressmen going for that deal. Even Democrats. New York got itself into this mess with gullible voters buying into we can be all we can be with every entitlement program that was proposed and even endorsed by the Buffalo News. With the shrinking tax base of productive citizenry leaving over the years, it should come as no surprise that this is now occurring. Program cuts, layoffs, increased taxes, will all be part of next year's budget equation.

[Manny]

This state has done nothing to help it's real true "residents" for decades. Make that centuries.
If anything, they did as much as they possibly could, to hurt the true, born and raised here, taxpayer, living here for many generations. Making New York a super, high powered magnet, free-for-all "buffet" of huge benefits for every single type of transient. They gave the transients more factual, record, "paid out" benefits than it's residents, who had to foot the huge, gigantic, mega-bills and costs, turning our tax problems, into many of their vast "tied to", mega-profit making industries, they were healily vested in.

Unaccountability has become rampant, and acceptable. Ask all you want. Complain all you want. Shout all you want. Blog all you want. They do not, have not, and will not answer to us. That is a matter of record. Their main and only concern is re-election, and getting the mega-funds to make that happen. Those kind of funds do not come from the poor, nor the homeless, nor the jobless. So who do you really, truely think are they going to serve?

New Yorks incumbants have become a shear legend, and have made it into a very lucrative, guaranteed money making industry. All expenses paid. The troughs are overflowing here, in New York State Inc., despite all the tumbleweeds flying everywhere.

It's "business as usual" for the always, highest of the high priced, "Incumbant Ferris Wheel" in the state New York. How can they, in any way what so ever, relate, or want any change, when their dizzy with glee, riding their endless Disneyland ride, and nobody is sitting at the on\off lever to stop their free ride?

[Michael Munich]

Re: James Heaney state's position. Now that we have a black blind Governor in NY. You would think that he would be able to move the Democratic legislature to do what is right for it's citizens. The public sector is strangling the life out of the private sector. The citizens and business can not afford any more tax
increases. Govenor Paterson failure to pass a property tax cap leads me to believe that he will not be able to balance the state budget. I think the state should file for bankrupcy and start all over. That is your only hope.

A former NY resident

Michael Munich

[TheGuv]

If the Sate wants to really help his “Fellow New Yorkers” they should look into cutting some of the administration within every agency and the Department of Correctional services during these economic times? I looked up the salaries of the state employees on the public payroll link and was amazed at the exorbitant amount of money that many of the administrators of the state employees currently get paid, but what I found most disturbing was how many of the highly paid state employees are from the Department of Corrections administration. Using the link the following bloat was found: FISCHER, BRIAN S COMMR CORRECTION CORRECTIONS $136,000.00, KRISS, ERIK DIR PUB INFO CORRECTIONS $104,499.00 ANNUAL, RIVERA, ISRAEL ASSOC COMMR CORRECTIONS $155,312.00, ANNUCCI, ANTHONY JOSEPH EXEC DPTY COMMR CORRECTIONS $162,318.00 , OLSEN, BRUCE E SUPT CORR FAC CORRECTIONS $124,658.00, LECLAIRE JR, LUCIEN J DEPUTY COMMR CORRECTIONS $161,807.00 and the list goes on and on.

[Stan]

Like Diogenes with a lamp, I continue to search for even one honest and able leader. Both in the business and political worlds in New York State. Many names are in the press, with successful private businesses. Should we start with the County Executive? But he is an example of the others. Self-serving people who know only their ways. In this troubled era, this does the state of the state (and localities), no good. It is not sufficient. They must start with what many, including journalists, will not acknowledge. The financial system has failed. The economic system is failing.
New initiatives and reforms are now a necessity, with every dollar and effort needed. The Big Three did not get it when they flew to Washington in private jet aircraft. It is the same with financiers, business people, and the political parties that control elections. This is now breaking out into an economic civil war that has been undercover for a decade now. The middle class has had its security blanket taken away. Unless the truth is told, like the banks suing and not trusting each other, only propaganda is out there. The taxpayer funds are going to go down the drain. But a few American oligarchs will become very rich, and still richer. This is a casino game, and the house always wins. The middle class had best be prepared.

[lanres]

Cut 25,000 - 10 percent of positions - and you save $2.2 billion. ? ? ? Cut 25thousand positions = lose 100,000+/- votes - which Political Party will dare ? - - - Albany believes if they hire enough "Party Faithful" - eventualy they will become a self sustaining - tax fed - highly taxed self serving amebic type organism. - - - the rest of the residents can then just leave ? :)